DISCOVER
Eraj Alisherov
Tajikistan, Moving Forward
Two Years, a Clearer Direction
Beginning of October 2026
— A country’s progress rarely arrives as one dramatic moment. Sometimes it is a border agreement. Sometimes it is a vaccine, a better connection, or a school testing a new way to teach. Tajikistan’s developments in 2025 and 2026 deserve that closer look. There is real momentum here, alongside unfinished work. What interests me is whether the changes becoming visible in the economy will become equally visible in people’s lives.
SERVICES
Observer
The Shape of the Growth
Start with the numbers. Tajikistan’s economy grew by 8.4% in 2025, according to the World Bank. ADB reports industrial expansion of 22.1% and agricultural growth of 9.5% that year. These are substantial increases across important parts of the economy.
But the foundation still needs strengthening. The World Bank estimates net remittances at 46% of GDP in 2025. Money earned abroad remains an enormous source of support for households and domestic demand.
For me, the next milestone is more opportunity at home. Growth becomes more durable when a young person can find a worthwhile job without having to leave the country.
A Border
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan: Forging a Path to Better Neighborhood Relations
On March 13, 2025, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan signed their state-border treaty in Bishkek. The UN Secretary-General welcomed the agreement as the successful conclusion of decades of negotiations. I would put this among the period’s most important achievements. More predictable relations with a neighbour give communities and businesses a firmer basis for planning.
Other connections improved too. The World Bank reports that international flight frequency increased by 36% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with the same period of 2024, excluding routes to and from Russia. It also reports an approximately 8% decline in the average US-dollar price of a gigabyte of mobile data after reforms began in 2025. These changes have everyday significance: more ways to reach the country, and a lower measured cost of connecting from within it.
The Power
Rogun remains the largest expression of that ambition. In June 2026, the World Bank approved a further $300 million grant, bringing its total financing for the hydropower project to $650 million. The Bank projects annual generation of 14,400 gigawatt-hours and improved electricity access for 10 million people. Those are expected benefits, not results already delivered.
The distinction matters. Rogun’s importance will ultimately be measured through reliable power, sound operation, and the treatment of communities affected by its construction.
A dependable electricity supply gives the rest of the development story somewhere to stand.
Progress
The HPV vaccine entered Tajikistan’s national immunization schedule in October 2025. UNICEF subsequently confirmed routine vaccination for 10-year-old girls and a completed catch-up campaign for girls aged 11–14. This is a concrete advance in preventive healthcare. Education is also changing. In May 2026, UNICEF described new mathematics and Tajik-language materials emphasizing practical application and independent thinking. Grade 7 materials were being tested in 30 schools before wider rollout.
Then, on October 2, 2026, ADB approved $20.5 million to modernize pensions and social insurance. The project aims to simplify administration and extend coverage to people whose working lives include informal employment, self-employment, or migration. It is a new commitment whose results still lie ahead.
The Land of Ajam
''A man who is not even interested in his own country is nothing more than a passport. He was born a passport and shall die one.'' — Eraj Alisherov, The Patriot
A Memory
''In 2025, UNESCO added the Cultural Heritage Sites of Ancient Khuttal to the World Heritage List. Its eleven components reflect the region’s place in centuries of Silk Roads exchange. That recognition matters alongside economic development. Tajikistan has a future to build and a history to preserve. Conservation and thoughtful tourism can help connect the two.''
— Eraj Alisherov, The Patriot
I am encouraged by the direction, while keeping the unfinished work in view. A financing agreement still needs implementation. A classroom pilot still needs wider testing. Strong growth still needs to create lasting opportunities.
The most convincing evidence will be ordinary: a business with dependable power, a child who learns more effectively, a pensioner who receives support without unnecessary difficulty. Tajikistan is moving forward. The next achievement is making that progress something more people can feel.
Economic Momentum
Industrial Expansion
No. | Sector | Statistic | Value | Unit | Period | Comparison | Status | Source | Publication | Notes |
1 | Economy | Real GDP growth | 8.4% | Percent | 2025 | 2024 | Reported result | World Bank | Country overview (Current overview) | Annual real economic growth. |
2 | Industry | Industrial growth | 22.1% | Percent | 2025 | 2024 | Reported result | ADB | Asian Development Outlook (April 2026) | Industrial sector expansion. |
3 | Agriculture | Agricultural growth | 9.5% | Percent | 2025 | 2024 | Reported result | ADB | Asian Development Outlook (April 2026) | Agricultural sector expansion. |
4 | Wages | Average salary increase | 20.0% | Percent | 2025 | 2024 | Reported result | ADB | Asian Development Outlook (April 2026) | Nominal increase, before inflation adjustment. |
5 | Wages | Minimum wage increase | 25.0% | Percent | 2025 | Previous minimum wage | Reported result | ADB | Asian Development Outlook (April 2026) | Nominal increase, before inflation adjustment. |
6 | Economy | Real GDP growth, first half | 8.2% | Percent | H1 2026 | H1 2025 | Reported result | Interfax citing EDB | H1 2026 economic growth (2026-09-07) | Half-year outcome, reported by Interfax citing EDB. |
7 | Remittances | Net remittances / GDP | 46.0% | Percent of GDP | 2025 | Not applicable | Estimate | World Bank | Macro Poverty Outlook (April 2026) | Net measure. ADB reports a different headline remittance estimate. |
8 | Finance | International reserves | 5.6 | USD billion | 2025 | Not applicable | Reported result | World Bank | Macro Poverty Outlook (April 2026) | Equivalent to more than eight months of imports. |
9 | Public finance | Public debt / GDP | 18.3% | Percent of GDP | 2025 | Not applicable | Reported result | World Bank | Macro Poverty Outlook (April 2026) | Public debt relative to annual GDP. |
10 | Banking | Capital adequacy ratio | 23.1% | Percent | December 2025 | 12% regulatory minimum | Reported result | World Bank | Macro Poverty Outlook (April 2026) | Bank capital adequacy. |
11 | Banking | Nonperforming loan ratio | 6.6% | Percent of loans | December 2025 | Previous ratio: 7.1% | Reported result | World Bank | Macro Poverty Outlook (April 2026) | Share of total loan portfolio. |
12 | Transport | International flight frequency increase | 36.0% | Percent | Q4 2025 | Q4 2024 | Reported result | World Bank | Economic transformation results brief (2026-06-12) | Excludes flights to and from Russia. |
13 | Digital | Mobile data price reduction | 8.0% | Percent | Since reforms began in 2025 | Earlier average USD price per GB | Reported result | World Bank | Economic transformation results brief (2026-06-12) | Approximate fall in the average USD price of 1 GB. |
14 | Energy | Electricity distribution losses | 15.6% | Percent | 2025 | 2024: 19.2% | Reported result | World Bank | Economic transformation results brief (2026-06-12) | Distribution losses, distinct from transmission losses. |
15 | Energy | Rogun second-phase grant | 300 | USD million | June 2026 | Not applicable | Approved financing | World Bank | Rogun second-phase financing (2026-06-30) | Funding approval, not completed construction. |
16 | Energy | Total World Bank Rogun financing | 650 | USD million | By June 2026 | Not applicable | Financing commitment | World Bank | Rogun programme overview (Current overview) | World Bank total, not all partners combined. |
17 | Energy | Rogun expected annual generation | 14,400 | GWh per year | On project completion | Not applicable | Projected benefit | World Bank | Rogun second-phase financing (2026-06-30) | Expected output, not current generation. |
18 | Energy | People expected to gain improved electricity access | 10,000,000 | People | On project completion | Not applicable | Projected benefit | World Bank | Rogun second-phase financing (2026-06-30) | Expected beneficiaries, not achieved coverage. |
19 | Social protection | Social insurance modernization grant | 20.5 | USD million | October 2026 | Not applicable | Approved financing | ADB | Social insurance modernization (2026-10-02) | Grant approved on 2 October 2026. |
20 | Social protection | Existing contributors intended to use new platform | 320,000 | People | Future platform implementation | Not applicable | Target | ADB | Social insurance modernization (2026-10-02) | At least this many existing contributors. |
21 | Social protection | Pensioners intended to use new platform | 250,000 | People | Future platform implementation | Not applicable | Target | ADB | Social insurance modernization (2026-10-02) | Intended users, not newly enrolled pensioners. |
22 | Education | Schools testing Grade 7 materials | 30 | Schools | May 2026 | Not applicable | Pilot result | UNICEF | Learning for the Future (2026-05-21) | Pilot before wider textbook rollout. |
23 | Agriculture | Livestock modernization grant | 17 | USD million | November 2025 | Not applicable | Approved financing | ADB | Livestock modernization grant (2025-11-21) | Project completion targeted for 2031. |
