Intro

I sometimes think about the future of statehood, country building, borders, and all this stuff. And then I think, 200 to 300 years from now, how could one country expand its borders while making sure no one complains and/or compromises the entire ambition? Let’s dive into it and find out.

Example: America

America is already big enough. Excellent economy, ambitious space and starship projects, huge technological capabilities. Imagine we are in the year 2326. Three hundred years have passed since 2026. I died, you died probably, everybody from our generation died. At this point, at least, I can imagine America reaching Mars and building the first city, state, and continuation of the country called the USA.

But imagine this. If America manages to occupy Mars, it would become the first-ever country from planet Earth to conquer another planet and call it America. I know one thing for sure: the American government would probably never call it broadly "the second Earth for humans." It would be another USA, a continuation of it, but in the shape of an entire planet.

And this is where things become interesting. The moment a country establishes a permanent civilization somewhere beyond Earth, the question stops being simply "Can we get there?" and becomes "Who controls what we have built?" If America is the first to establish cities, infrastructure, transportation, government institutions and millions of people on Mars, it would be extremely difficult to convince future American politicians that all of this should simply belong to "humanity" in general.

Unlike the Moon

The Moon is something important, right? Mars slightly perturbs Earth's orbit, participates in the long-term stability of the Solar System, can influence Earth's orbital cycles over extremely long periods, and interacts gravitationally with other objects such as asteroids. But Mars isn't particularly important to Earth's day-to-day physics.

A country from Earth cannot, for example, simply start creating cities on the Moon and then call the entire Moon a continuation of its borders. Nah. The Moon directly affects Earth much more significantly. Its proximity makes it a much more important part of Earth's physical environment. The same goes for the Sun, obviously, but nobody is going to build a city there anytime soon.

Mars, on the other hand, is just another planet, relatively speaking. It is completely, or at least theoretically, outside the immediate interests of many countries. Poor countries would probably be busy dealing with their own problems, while only the most ambitious and wealthy states could realistically think about establishing a permanent presence there.

America goes into that category. Since Mars has relatively little direct influence on Earth compared with the Moon or Sun, it COULD potentially be taken over by one country and then treated politically as a continuation of the borders of that specific country on Earth. At least, that is how I imagine the future could develop.

Nervous UN

The key document here is the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, administered through the UN system. It explicitly covers Mars because it applies to "outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies." Article II says that outer space and celestial bodies are not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means.

But America, if I were the President, for example, wouldn’t agree to that. Guess why? A country like America busts its ass to make sure it arrives at another planet. It builds everything there, spends trillions, develops the technology, establishes cities, transports millions of people, creates infrastructure, and makes an entire civilization possible. And then suddenly someone says, "Congratulations. Mars belongs to all humanity."

Of course, I understand the argument. In the future, Earth could potentially become heavily overpopulated, resources could become increasingly limited, and humanity might have no other option except transferring millions or billions of people to nearby planets. But taking into account the nature of humans and statehood, I can hardly imagine countries simply abandoning their political identities once they reach Mars.

America would probably make sure to build the continuation of its borders on Mars and officially call it the USA on Mars. Once the big cities are built, there is almost no chance that politicians would permanently describe the entire thing as simply "a human colony." It would become American land, or something politically equivalent to American territory. Because humans are humans.

The First Flag Problem

Here is where things become even crazier. Imagine America establishes the first permanent city on Mars. The first school is American. The first hospital is American. The first airport or spaceport is American. The first police force is American. The first currency used in everyday transactions is American. The first government is American. The first children born there grow up speaking English. At what point does Mars stop being "a colony" and start becoming "America"?

There might not even be a single moment when this happens. It could happen gradually. First, there is a scientific base. Then a permanent settlement. Then a city. Then several cities. Then a territorial administration. Then elections. Then Mars-based political representatives. Then a Mars constitution. And suddenly, 100 years later, people are arguing about whether Martian territory is part of the United States.

The funny thing is that humans have already done this repeatedly on Earth. We create an administrative structure, give it a name, draw a border, put a flag there, create laws, issue documents, and after a few generations everyone accepts that the place is "ours." Why would the psychology suddenly disappear on Mars?

Maybe the first flag placed on Mars will therefore be much more important than we currently understand. It might not simply represent a scientific achievement. It could eventually become the symbolic beginning of an entirely new branch of human civilization. Whoever places the first flag might influence the political identity of an entire planet for centuries.

Passport

People living on Mars probably would not simply carry the exact same passport system used by people living on Earth. They would need something special that specifically indicates that they are Martians. So imagine a passport designed specifically for Mars.

But here is the interesting part: it might not necessarily be some international UN-agreed passport. The country that gets to Mars first could issue the first Martian passports under its own regulations and legislation, making sure that the document represents the people living under its authority on Mars.

Again, that is because humans tend to copy things based on previous experience. We already have passports, citizenship, borders, governments, national IDs, currencies, flags, military forces, police, courts and constitutions. When humans build civilization somewhere new, we don't suddenly forget all of those concepts. We take them with us.

The first Martian passport could therefore become something much more than a travel document. It could become proof of a completely new type of citizenship. Imagine someone holding a document saying "United States of America, Martian Territory." That sounds ridiculous today, but so would many things from 2026 to someone living in 2326.

The Martian Cold War

Now imagine something even crazier. America gets to Mars first and establishes a massive settlement. Twenty years later, China arrives. Ten years after that, India arrives. Europe establishes several cities. Russia establishes a research and industrial zone. Private corporations start building their own settlements. Suddenly Mars becomes a geopolitical chessboard.

There could be an American Mars, a Chinese Mars, an Indian Mars, European Mars, corporate Mars and eventually independent Martian cities. The first major conflict on another planet might not even be about natural resources. It could be about borders.

Imagine two countries arguing over a 5,000-square-kilometer region on Mars because both believe it belongs to them. Humans would literally export geopolitics to another planet. We would have managed to travel 225 million kilometers and still find a way to argue about territory. Honestly, that sounds exactly like humanity.

And the competition could become much bigger than territory. Countries might compete over water deposits, underground shelters, landing zones, energy sources, communication networks and the best areas for future settlements. Mars could become the ultimate combination of Antarctica, the Middle East, the Arctic and the Cold War, except that the entire geopolitical game would happen on another planet.

The Crazy Possibility

Here is another hypothesis. What if Mars eventually becomes independent? At first, Mars belongs politically to one or several Earth powers. But after several generations, people born on Mars might stop identifying themselves primarily as Americans, Chinese, Indians or Europeans. They could simply say, "I am Martian." That could create the first genuinely extraterrestrial nationality.

And then something extremely ironic could happen. The first country to establish civilization on Mars might eventually lose Mars politically. America could build the civilization, populate it, develop its infrastructure and spend enormous amounts of money creating it. Then, 150 years later, the people born there could decide, "We are not Americans anymore. We are Martians."

At that point, the United States could face the most bizarre independence movement in human history. A Martian independence movement. Imagine the slogan: "Mars for Martians." Imagine Earth governments watching millions of people born on Mars demanding independence from a planet they have never even visited.

The irony would be incredible. Humanity could spend centuries trying to conquer another planet, only for the people born there to eventually tell Earth: "Thank you for building it. Now leave us alone." The same cycle of colonization, independence and national identity that happened on Earth could repeat itself millions of kilometers away.